Technological Progress and Youth Employment in South Korea

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the extent to which technology progress and youth employment are related. In doing so, we divide workers into two groups – young workers and old (prime-aged) workers - and then estimate the elasticity of substitution between (physical) capital and workers à la Jaimovich et al. (2013. “The Demand for Youth: Explaining Age Differences in the Volatility of Hours.” American Economic Review 103 (7): 3022–3044) by using the Korean labour market data between 2000 and 2014. Our findings indicate that the elasticity of substitution is greater (or at least not smaller) for young workers than for old workers.     

我国房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模的相关性研究

本文首先从理论上深刻剖析了房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模相互之间的作用与传导机制,在此基础上选取2006年-2018年相关指标的年度数据,对房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模进行了图形拟合与周期性波动规律分析,分析发现二者存在极高的契合度。建立房地产泡沫的函数,构建协整方程实证发现银行信贷规模对房地产泡沫的长期弹性系数为0.51,从长期来看银行信贷规模每增加1%,房地产泡沫也相应增加0.51%,进一步建立VAR模型实证发现房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模互为格兰杰因果关系,二者相互影响、相互促进。通过方差分解实证发现银行信贷规模对房地产泡沫的变动具有重要的影响,另一方面,房地产泡沫是影响银行信贷规模变动最主要的因素。     

INCOME‐GENERATING ACTIVITY: AN AVENUE TO IMPROVE THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SHGs

Self‐help groups (SHGs) are formed to work for increased income through collective effort and use of banking facilities by initiating some income‐generating activities taking advantage of the financial strength of a group. Taking into consideration the significance of SHGs to economic growth, the present study analyzes and compares the management of the income‐generating activities of SHGs in rural and urban areas. It also explores the extent of resource mobilization through various income‐generating activities, and the constraints faced by the SHGs while undertaking these activities. It is an exploratory research in which a multi‐stage stratified cluster random sampling technique was used for the selection of SHGs. Data were collected at group level and member level through purposely developed interview schedules and focused group discussions. The study revealed that, because of various financial and marketing‐related problems occurring while initiating and conducting the activities, very few SHG members actually started new income‐generating activities. Testing of hypotheses indicated that SHGs do not fulfil all the requirements of income‐generating activities carried out by its members. An overall low to medium level of resource mobilization by a majority of the SHGs presented a poor picture of SHGs in generating resources for undertaking entrepreneurial activities.     

浅谈班组安全管理工作

班组安全管理是建筑施工企业安全生产管理的基础和根本。人的不安全行为是造成安全事故的直接原因,本文从培养安全意识、安全行为、安全习惯等方面入手,通过教育、制度等途径及时进行引导和约束,规避不安全行为,实现班组安全生产。     

用基尼系数衡量我国收入公平的局限性探讨

文章认为,基尼系数在衡量我国收入公平问题存在的局限集中表现在基尼系数自身存在、衡量收入公平和我国收入差距特殊性三个方面。基于此,要结合对居民主观性评判起影响作用的因素和科学的理性统计数据两方面对我国收入公平问题做出符合实际的科学判断。     

Gender and age distribution of motorcycle crashes in Spain

This study analysed motorcycle crashes in Spain. Ninety-nine thousand three hundred and four motorcycle crash reports filed in the years 2006–2011 were extracted from the Directorate General of Traffic database of crashes with victims. These data were analysed in terms of gender, age groups, trip purpose, type of crash, speed violation, day of the week, harm caused, use of helmet and psychophysical conditions of the driver to study the characteristics of motorcycle crashes in Spain and to assess the differences between male and female motorcycle drivers in these crashes. Significant differences were found in all the variables considered in the study, which implies gender differences in the profile of the injured motorcycle driver. The severity of motorcycle crashes suffered by male drivers is higher than that of women. These results corroborate the need to develop measures differentiated by gender, based on their profile.     

乡村森林旅游项目升级发展过程政商博弈探微——基于Z风景区3A创4A的案例分析

以Z风景区3A创4A愿景中当地政府与风景区经营商两个主体的决策行为为研究对象,以制度经济学为理论基础,采用博弈论模型进行分析。结果表明:在政府和经营商目标不一致的前提下,从政府来说,在政绩驱动下急于达到创4A目标,但政府又不能滥用纳税人的钱追加投资,其意愿是让商家继续投资,为创4A发力;从商家来说,虽然创4A有利于项目营利空间,但是客观上有规避未来市场不确定性和投资回报周期长双重风险的意识,还可能由于政府对项目创4A的急切性,导致商家存在"政府有可能追加投资,自己"搭便车"的"等靠要"机会主义思想,追加投资意愿不高;反过来也可能存在政府等待商家投资的搭便车行为。为此,提出以政商共同利益最大化为目标,通过改变激励措施,使政商博弈达到合作状态下较优的均衡结果。     

基于生态系统服务功能的森林社会效益价值评估——以云南省森林资源为例

森林除了具有经济价值和生态价值外,还具有基于生态系统服务功能所产生的社会效益价值。论文以云南省森林资源为例,采用房地产评估中常用的假设开发法为主要评估方法,结合森林资源所反映的社会效益价值增长特征,运用企业自由现金流量折现模型中的两阶段现金流折现模型,通过构建模型体系,分别从直接社会效益和间接社会效益两个维度对云南省森林资源的社会效益价值进行评估。其中,直接社会效益包括就业价值和景观游憩价值,间接社会效益包括科教价值、历史价值及文化价值,通过模糊综合评判计算各组成部分的不同影响权重得出直接和间接社会效益模型,以多元回归的方法构建森林生态总体社会效益价值模型并计算云南省森林社会效益价值。同时,将各部分价值结果分别与云南省第三产业GDP、人均GDP及云南省GDP进行对比分析,进而对云南省森林社会效益价值现有情况进行评价,并对今后的森林资源开发提出相关建议。     

生产分工视角的中国对美国货物出口竞争力验证

考虑生产分工对中美间经贸联系程度、贸易规模和结构的影响,基于生产分工下价值链视角,构建出口竞争力测度指标体系,验证中国对美国货物出口竞争力。结果显示:2016年及之前,中国仅在杂项制品大类上,对美国显示出较强出口竞争力,机械和运输设备、动物和植物油、油脂和蜡我国具有比较优势,化学成品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品双方竞争性较强,其余大类上,中国对美国出口竞争力不具优势。引入其他国家作对比的分析结果表明:中国对对比国家均无显著出口竞争力,而且对美国出口具有单价优势的资本技术密集型产品,对这些国家出口多缺乏单价优势,而2017年以来对美国和对比国家的贸易变化,进一步勾画出中国对美国货物出口竞争力不足。在生产分工主导全球产业发展背景下,提升我国在全球生产分工中的参与地位,宜强化自主技术研发、提升外资质量和技术外溢、加快"走出去"学习先进技术。     

Is Downward Wage Flexibility the Primary Factor of Japan's Prolonged Deflation?

By using both macro‐ and micro‐level data, this paper investigates how wages and prices evolved during Japan's lost two decades. We find that downward nominal wage rigidity was present in Japan until the late 1990s, but disappeared after 1998 as annual wages became downwardly flexible. Moreover, nominal wage flexibility may have contributed to Japan's relatively low unemployment rates. Although macro‐level movements in nominal wages and prices seemed to be synchronized, such synchronicity is not observed at the industry level. Therefore, wage deflation does not seem to be a primary factor of Japan's prolonged deflation.